Hurricane Irma Likely to Make Landfall Near Cape Coral as A Category 4

Hurricane Irma

ABOUT 10 MI NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 225 MI S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT WNW AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB

Additional Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, as well as portions of the Florida Gulf Coast later today.

Storm Surge

Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula to Chassahowitzka
Florida Keys
Tampa Bay

Storm Surge Watch

North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County line
North of Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River

Hurricane Warning

Flagler/Volusia County Line southward around the Florida peninsula to Chassahowitzka
Florida Keys
Lake Okeechobee
Florida Bay
Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Matanzas
Northwestern Bahamas

Hurricane Watch

North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Fernandina Beach
North and west of Chassahowitzka to Indian Pass
Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

Tropical Storm Warning

Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de la Habana

Tropical Storm Watch

North of Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Summary

Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph, along the north coast of Cuba. A northwest motion is expected
to begin later today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near or over the north coast of Cuba this morning, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to be near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.

The interaction with the terrain of Cuba has weakened the hurricane a little. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph with higher gusts, but Irma remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

STORM SURGE

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Suwannee River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas…3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND

Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas today, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday.

RAINFALL

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night:

Northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Western Bahamas…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
The Florida Keys…10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
The eastern Florida Panhandle…3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina…4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern
Alabama, and southern Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES

A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.

SURF

Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the
United States today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Information Courtesy: National Weather Service & National Hurricane Center

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