A Tropical Cyclone is expected to form in the Northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. As of this morning the system was located at 28.5N, 86.4W with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph moving WSW at 8 mph. The current pressure is 1011 MB. The following Watches/Warnings have been issued: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 18 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or early Friday.
